Mexico has enormous potential to develop renewable energy projects. The country has high solar radiation, wind capacity, and geothermal sources. In addition, with the right technologies and expertise, the country could increase energy storage and green hydrogen projects. Harnessing this potential could help to diversify the energy supply, lower the cost of electricity, and support companies that have strict sustainability objectives and are committed to lower their carbon footprint. Despite changes in policy and delays in permits, the U.S. Commercial Service Mexico has seen increasing participation from both Mexican companies seeking U.S. renewable energy technologies and U.S. firms travelling to Mexico for trade shows and events with the interest of expanding operations in the country.

Overview

According to Mexico’s Energy Transition Law (Ley de Transición Energética) and General Climate Change Law (Ley General de Cambio Climático), Mexico’s goal is 35 percent of electricity from clean energy sources by 2024, which includes power regeneration from renewable and non-renewable sources such as nuclear and efficient cogeneration.

Mexico’s National Power System Development Program (Programa de Desarrollo del Sistema Eléctrico Nacional or PRODESEN) reported a total of 340,713 GWh of power generation in 2022, from which 31.2 percent corresponded to clean energy sources (renewable and non-renewable such as nuclear and efficient cogeneration) and 68.8 percent corresponded to fossil fuels (combined cycle, conventional thermal, coal fired, gas fired, and internal combustion).

In 2022, the installed capacity of Mexico’s clean energy plants (renewable and non-renewable) was 31,369 MW, which represented an increase of 1.81 percent in comparison to the previous year, when the installed capacity of clean energy accounted for 30,812 MW. The installed capacity of renewable energy mainly came from hydro, wind, and photovoltaic solar PV plants.

According to a 2022 report by the National Renewable Energy Labs, Mexico’s large and diverse renewable energy resource base could support significant growth in clean generation capacity. National technical potential includes 24,918 GW of solar photovoltaics, 3,669 GW of wind, 2.5 GW of conventional geothermal, and 1.2 GW of additional capacity from existing hydropower facilities —all combined, enough to meet the country’s electricity needs a hundred times over.

However, in the past three years the electrical power sector has faced several policy changes under the current administration, and those changes have altered the dynamics of the electricity market for private sector participants and have affected the confidence for future investments.

Moreover, there is a backlog of cases of companies trying to obtain power generation permits. Mexico’s Energy Regulatory Commission (Comisión Reguladora de Energía or CRE) published in Mexico’s Official Gazette (Diario Oficial de la Federación) a document with the administrative provisions to present the information for power generation permits. In this document, CRE also reviews the process to apply for a power generation permit and establishes the timeline for the evaluation procedure of the application and the granting of the permit or authorization.

In general, the priority of the Government of Mexico (GOM) is to strengthen the role of the Federal Electricity Commission (CFE), so it can become, as in the past, Mexico’s primary supplier of electricity. Private companies have faced challenges to invest in large-scale renewable energy projects due to permitting delays and policy initiatives such as the 2021 Electric Industry Law, which sought to establish a dispatch system to give priority to CFE’s plants, among other changes. Nevertheless, companies remain interested in participating in the conversation to facilitate and increase opportunities in this sector in Mexico in the coming years as they see the advantages of utilizing the latest renewable energy and energy storage technologies to reduce electricity cost, increase efficiency, and protect the environment.

Development Program of the National Electrical System (PRODESEN) 2023-2037

On May 29, 2023, the Secretariat of Energy (Secretaría de Energía or SENER) published the 2023-2037 PRODESEN. This planning document is aligned with Mexico’s National Development Plan 2019-2024, and it addresses electricity generation, transmission, distribution, and commercialization needs of the National Electrical System (Sistema Eléctrico Nacional or SEN). The 2023-2037 PRODESEN emphasizes the commitment of the GOM to guarantee universal access to electricity and to contribute to the social and economic development of the country.

The PRODESEN specifically includes provisions concerning the modernization of the electrical system, which include proposals for expansion projects of the national transmission and distribution networks, the development of new CFE power plants, and the rehabilitation, modernization, and installation of new equipment for CFE’s hydroelectric plants in operation. The planning of the electricity sector considers international commitments regarding the environment, the reduction of emissions, and mitigation of climate change. As part of the energy matrix, there are projections to increase the electricity generation from clean and renewable energy sources during 2023-2037.

In addition, the PRODESEN emphasizes Mexico’s multiple commitments to sustainable development and climate change, with special attention to the Paris Agreement, which includes a global commitment to limit the increase in the global temperature below 1.5 degrees Celsius.

Although, there has not been any official announcement, the PRODESEN includes a section that provides an overview of electric mobility and transportation.

Leading Sub-Sectors

Based on continued interest demonstrated at trade events and published projects, the U.S. Commercial Service Mexico determines that the renewable energy sub-sectors with the most potential for U.S. exporters are small-scale wind and hydro. Additionally, while many large-scale renewable projects have stalled, small scale distributed generation opportunities present a new niche for many U.S. businesses. Incentives for on-site distributed generation projects include the rising cost of power, a desire for increased energy reliability, and a need to meet internal corporate decarbonization goals as a component of environmental, social, and corporate governance (ESG) programs. Distributed generation project permits can take a few weeks for approval, while larger projects can take months or years and often face uphill political battles for approval.

Other relevant technologies that offer potential include energy storage, solar heating, other forms of small-scale distributed generation, and electromobility.  

Opportunities

Industrial and Commercial Sectors

Large industrial and commercial sectors represent most of the electricity demand. Industrial manufacturing, operations, and commercial activities have been impacted by high electricity rates. Despite the challenges for large scale renewable energy projects, the industrial and commercial sectors are an important area of opportunity for U.S. exports. Companies are continuously looking for technological alternatives onsite to increase energy efficiency and reduce costs. In Mexico, more than 30 percent of the industrial sector has begun to take voluntary steps to decarbonize and become more efficient with their operations and processes. This process produces economic benefits for companies and represents a commitment of the private sector to contribute to their corporate sustainable development objectives.

Working with States

Some States in Mexico have stated the importance of developing and supporting renewable energy projects as part of the energy matrix. Securing a reliable electricity supply is a priority in some States such as Yucatan, Nuevo Leon, Tamaulipas, Puebla, Baja California, and Queretaro to attract more investments that will support economic growth and sustainable development. Some states have presented ambitious plans for economic growth that include and consider the need to invest in electricity infrastructure in the near future.

Hydrogen

According to the Mexican Hydrogen Association H2 México, investment in green hydrogen will help to develop Mexico’s industry to grow and decarbonize the Mexican economy. There are key government supporters of clean energy and green hydrogen in Mexico. For instance, on March 15, the Mexican Hydrogen Association was invited to the Mexican Congress to lead an “Innovation and Technological Forum on Green Hydrogen, Challenges and Opportunities”, where there was a recognition that green hydrogen is a great opportunity for Mexico to reach clean energy and decarbonization goals. Experts also talked about the actions and policies needed to support the development of green hydrogen in Mexico.

The initial conversations in the business community are starting to take place. Although there is still work to be done to open opportunities for green hydrogen projects in Mexico, the U.S. Commercial Service is already tracking and preparing initiatives to support U.S. hydrogen companies to connect them as early as possible with opportunities in Mexico as they become available in the coming years.

Electromobility

Another important element for renewable energy development in Mexico expected to contribute to emission reductions commitments is electromobility. The GOM is interested in further exploring opportunities and designing a strategy to promote the use of hybrid and electric cars and other transportation. Although there has not been any official announcement, the PRODESEN 2022-2036 included a section that provided an overview of electric mobility and transportation. Mexico has developed a strong capacity for manufacturing and logistics of the automotive industry, which would be relevant to develop and achieve a National Mobility Strategy. The PRODESEN 2023-2037 mentioned a long-term scenario to have 4.9 million electric vehicles, or 32.3 percent of commercialized vehicles (light, cargo, and buses) by 2036.

In addition, on February 8, 2023, the University of California Alianza MX and the Mexican Ministry of Foreign Affairs (Secretaría de Relaciones Exteriores or SRE) gathered a group of experts from the United States and Mexico to launch a U.S.-Mexico Transportation Electrification Taskforce. The Task Force will develop a binational roadmap with a detailed analysis of the automotive sector and opportunities in the electrical transition.

United States expertise in renewable energy, energy storage, distributed generation and electromobility technologies is highly valued. We encourage companies to connect with the U.S. Commercial Service Mexico to discuss the best strategy for your company to explore opportunities in the Mexican market.

Resources

Events

• The Green Expo, September 5-7, 2023. Mexico City
• Mexico Wind Power, September 5-7, 2023. Mexico City
• RE+, September 11-14, 2023. Las Vegas, NV
• Distributech International, February 26-29, 2024. Orlando, FL
• Expo Eléctrica Internacional, June 4-6, 2024. Mexico City

Contacts

For more information on the renewable energy sector in Mexico, please contact:

Claudia Salgado

Commercial Specialist

U.S. Commercial Service —Mexico City

Tel: +52 (55) 5080-2000 ext. 5224

Claudia.Salgado@trade.gov