This section includes a market overview and trade data for the electricity sector in Mexico. This sector is important because of the growing demand of electricity for industrial and commercial users. This section includes relevant information on the electrical power system comprised by generation, transmission, distribution, sales, retail and consumption.

Overview

Mexico’s National Electric System (Sistema Eléctrico Nacional or SEN) is one of the largest in the Western Hemisphere. It is comprised of nine regions, plus a binational electricity system in Baja California. Most of the nine regions are interconnected, forming the National Interconnected System (Sistema Interconectado Nacional or SIN). The Baja California system operates in the Western Interconnection of the United States, overseen by the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC).

According to Mexico’s National Electrical System Development Program (Programa de Desarrollo del Sistema Eléctrico Nacional or PRODESEN), the total generation capacity as of December 2020, including power generation plants from the state-owned Federal Electricity Commission (Comisión Federal de Electricidad or CFE) and from private companies, reached 83,121 MW. By December 2021, the generation capacity increased to 86,153 MW, which represented an increase of 3.64 percent in comparison to 2020. A total of 35.76 percent of this power generation capacity was from clean energy sources (renewable and non-renewable, such as nuclear and efficient cogeneration), and 64.24 percent was from conventional sources (combined cycle, conventional thermal, coal-fired, gas-fired, and internal combustion). According to the International Energy Agency, Mexico’s population is expected to grow to over 150 million by 2050, considerably increasing energy demand. The industrial and commercial sectors account for 72 percent of electricity demand, representing the strongest opportunity for U.S. exports given the need to reduce energy costs and improve energy efficiency. However, it is necessary to consider recent policy developments that impact the type of projects that are  executed.

The electrical power sector has facedseveral policy changes under the current administration, and those changes are altering the dynamics of the electricity market for private sector participants. Strengthening the role of CFE, so that it can become, as in the past, Mexico’s primary supplier of electricity, is a top priority of the Government of Mexico.

CFE’s Business Plan is aligned with the government priority to support CFE in regaining its leadership position. This document outlines that CFE plans to achieve a participation of 54 percent of total power generation, without acquiring more debt. To make this possible, in July 2020, the Board of Directors approved the creation of the Investment Master Trust, which will be the financial mechanism for CFE to allocate resources towards power generation and to participate in the wholesale electricity market.

Development Program of the National Electrical System 2020–2034

On June 1, 2022, the Secretariat of Energy (Secretaría de Energía or SENER) published the 2022-2036 National Electrical System Development Program (PRODESEN). This planning document addresses electricity generation, transmission, distribution, and commercialization needs of the SEN. The 2022-2036 PRODESEN emphasizes the need for the reactivation of CFE by increasing the number of its power plants. For instance, in the medium-term, there is a plan to construct new combined cycle power plants, to rehabilitate and modernize existing hydroelectric plants, and to potentially equip others that already have hydraulic installation.

According to the PRODESEN, the Mexican Government intends to direct the planning of the SEN, guaranteeing the supply of electrical energy in accordance with the requirements of national development by coordinating the different sources of generation of the CFE and private sources. The PRODESEN specifically includes provisions concerning the modernization of the electrical system, which includes combined cycle, transmission, and distribution projects. In addition, contains a list of CFE projects that are under revision for 2022-2036.

Mexico’s 2021 Electric Industry Law and the Proposed Constitutional Reform of the Energy Sector

On February 1, 2021, Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador submitted a decree to reform the Electric Industry Law (Ley de la Industria Eléctrica). This law was approved by the Mexican Congress on February 23, 2021, and by the Mexican Senate on March 2, 2021. It was officially published in Mexico’s Official Gazette on March 9, 2021. However, on the same day it was published, the law was challenged in court and a judge granted a temporary suspension. On March 10, the Court issued a provisional suspension covering all the participants in the electricity market. On March 18, the Court granted a definitive suspension until there is a resolution of the injunctions filed by the companies. On March 24, SENER published the suspension of the law in Mexico’s Official Gazette, as requested by the Court.

President Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s Decree amending Mexico’s Electricity Industry includes the following objectives: to modify the electricity dispatch system to favor power generation from the Federal Electricity Commission’s plants; to grant permits in accordance with planning criteria of the National Electric System, which are established by SENER; to establish the granting of the Clean Energy Certificates (CEL) will not depend on the property or date of commercial operations of power generation plants; to eliminate the obligation of CFE’s Basic Electricity Service to buy electricity from auctions; to obligate the Energy Regulatory Commission (CRE) to ban self-supply permits that were obtained by acts that are constituted as legal fraud; and to revise the legacy and profitably of government commitments to energy capacity contracts.

Although, the Decree was initially suspended by court order, and declared unconstitutional soon after it was published, the final decision had to be made in April 2022 by the National Supreme Court, where it did not achieve the necessary majority to annul the Decree. Since April, various affected companies have brought amparos (constitutional challenges) against the Decree. At least two amparo cases have resulted in the general prevention of implementation of significant sections of the Decree. However, it should be noted that the AMLO administration has overcome similar environmental injunctions brought against the Tren Maya railway after declaring that the project is in the “national security matter.” It is not certain that the existing injunctions halting the energy reforms will be upheld.

The U.S. Commercial Service Mexico is closely following policy developments and their impact on current and future business opportunities in the electricity sector for U.S. exporters.

*Total market size = [(total local production + imports) – exports]

Source: Banco de México, PROMEXICO, est. from INEGI, SENER, (PRODESEN), U.S. International Trade Administration, World Trade Atlas and interviews with importers, distributors, and end-users of electrical equipment and power generation equipment and services.

The market for power generation equipment in Mexico is estimated to increase by 1.18 percent from 2021-2022, while exports from the United States to Mexico are expected to decrease by 0.95 percent. Leading Sub-Sectors

Key sub-sectors relevant for U.S. exporters include power generation, energy efficiency, distributed generation, energy storage technologies, and small-scale renewable energy projects.

Opportunities

The AMLO administration appears unlikely to halt efforts to protect CFE at the expense of private investors. However, the U.S. Commercial Service Mexico has seen significant interest from companies seeking to supply projects funded by the Mexican government, such as those announced on CFE’s procurement website. Additionally, the U.S. Commercial Service Mexico is seeing growing interest from both U.S. and Mexican companies at power sector-related trade shows. Despite the challenges presented by the proposed energy reform, the Mexican market remains competitive for suppliers of electricity infrastructure and smart grid technologies.

Mexico’s electrical power industry offers opportunities for U.S. products, services, and technologies for energy efficiency, distributed generation, energy storage technologies, and small-scale renewable energy projects. The U.S. Commercial Service Mexico is happy to assist you in exploring these opportunities in Mexico.

Resources

Mexican Secretariat of Energy (SENER)

National Control Center for Energy (CENACE)

Federal Electricity Commission (CFE)

Energy Regulatory Commission (CRE)

National Institute of Electricity and Clean Energy (INEEL)

Trust for Electric Energy Saving (FIDE)        

National Commission for Energy Efficiency (CONUEE)                                                                                                                                                                            

Federal Commission for Regulatory Improvement (CONAMER)                                                                                                                                                                            

Events

• Distributech International, February 7-9, 2023, San Diego, CA
• Power-Gen International, February 21-23, 2023, Orlando, FL.

Contacts

For more information on the electricity sector in Mexico, please contact:

Claudia Salgado

Commercial Specialist

U.S. Commercial Service—Mexico City

Tel.: +52 (55) 5080-2000 ext. 5224

Claudia.Salgado@trade.gov