Overview
|
|
2020
|
2021
|
2022 (projected) |
2023 (projected) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Total Market Size |
750,000 |
700,000 |
700,000 |
700,000 |
|
Total Local Production |
140,000 |
140,000 |
150,000 |
150,000 |
|
Total Exports |
55,000 |
55,000 |
58,000 |
60,000 |
|
Total Imports |
700,000 |
800.000 |
750,000 |
770,000 |
|
Imports from the U.S. |
320,000 |
280,000 |
230,000 |
240,000 |
|
Exchange Rate: 1 $ |
16.44 |
15.9 |
16.00 |
|
Unit: $thousand
Total Market Size = (Total Local Production + Total Imports) – (Total Exports)
Note: Above figures exclude the value of the independent Richards Bay coal terminal consortium upgrades and multi-year diesel and electric locomotives roll-out confirmed in 2010 and 2014. Figures also exclude related road, highway, and port/maritime investments. Figures are unofficial estimates obtained from press and industry sources.
South Africa has the best rail infrastructure in Africa. However, rail (freight and passenger) and port capacity deficits remain a severe constraint in domestic and regional trade, even in the currently constrained business environment. The South African Government’s plans to spend R900 billion by 2027 on rail infrastructure, have been beset by regulatory and organizational challenges, as well as theft of cabling, rail, and station infrastructure. Since 2017, exports have consistently dropped due to rail inefficiencies. The authorities’ intentions of addressing failings in the rail environment have made little progress in streamlining the freight and passenger network on the 3’6” Cape gauge with new tractive systems, carriages, hoppers, signaling and fare collection systems. Internal inefficiencies and administered rail tariffs have made competing against road freight almost impossible. Feasibility studies to expand the 4’8” gauge Gautrain high-speed passenger rail project in Pretoria and Johannesburg across Gauteng Province have been completed; implementation of work for the western route expansion is planned for 2023.
Opportunities
State-owned Transnet Freight Rail (TFR) and others are reviewing logistics (mostly rail, but also ports) projects such as upgrading the Sishen-Saldanha Bay ore line, the Richard Bay coal line, and other new coal line networks in North West Province. Transnet’s rail and port projects were set to cost around R300 billion over seven years and include augmenting the tractive and bulk car fleet, signaling, maintenance, advanced train management systems, increased line security, and network expansion/concession models. A TFR requirement for approximately 200 diesel locomotives is expected in Q4 2022.
In 2021, TFR announced plans to introduce concessionary / third-party operators into its branch lines- and later, the main lines network. To achieve this goal, TFR is commercially separating rail infrastructure from operations, with a target date of 2023. This will ultimately enable the railway operator to formulate tariffs for third parties. TFR is also developing a hook-and-haul service to increase private freight rolling stock.
Sub-Sector Best Prospects
Transportation equipment and infrastructure:
- Strategic Route Design and Network Planning
- Business Model Analysis and Concession Project Management
- New and Refurbished Locomotives
- New Bulk Car and Other Dedicated Rolling Fleets
- Smart Signaling and Operations Automation
- Security and Surveillance Systems
- Automatic Fare Collection Systems
- Rolling Stock Depot Design
Resources
Tambo-Springs Multi-Modal Logistics Hub
Exhibitions
Africa Rail 2021/2 Conference and Exhibition
20-21 October 2021 | Virtual Event
21-22 June 2022 | In-Person Event
Sandton Convention Center, Johannesburg
For More Information, the U.S. Commercial Service in Johannesburg, South Africa can be contacted via e-mail at:
Phone: +27 11 290 3208; Fax: +27 11 884 0253, or visit our website: