Market Overview

Uzbekistan managed to maintain a high growth rate in its economy in 2024 with GDP rising to 1,454.6 trillion soum ($115 billion), representing a 6.5% increase in real terms. The service sector (3.3%) was the main contributor to GDP growth, while manufacturing (1.7%), construction (0.6%), agriculture (0.6%) and net taxes on products (0.3%) accounted for the remainder. Uzbekistan’s national currency, the soum, depreciated by 4.5% against the U.S. dollar. The country’s international reserves increased by $6.6 billion to $41.2 billion. Its external debt rose by $10.8 billion to $64.1 billion: private (corporate) debt grew by $6.6 billion to $30.2 billion and public debt went up by 4.2 billion to $33.9 billion dollars. Inflation, measured by CPI, amounted to 9.8% in 2024. On March 20, 2025, the Central Bank raised the key interest rate from 13.5% to 14% and did not rule out further increases. Remittances to Uzbekistan surged by 30% reaching $14.8 billion in 2024 with 77% sent from Russia.

Table: Key Economic Indicators:

(Source: State Statistics Committee, Central Bank)    

Uzbekistan’s trade turnover showed moderate growth of 3.8% rising to $65.9 billion with $26.9 billion in exports and $39 billion in imports. Imports rose slightly, by 0.8%, while exports increased by 8.4%. Gold ($7.5 billion), services ($7.2 billion) and industrial goods ($4.2 billion) accounted for 70% of exports in 2024. The composition of Uzbekistan’s imports reflects its ongoing industrialization and modernization policy: machinery and transport equipment (34.6%), industrial goods (15.5%), chemicals and similar products (12%).

Major Trading Partners (Uzbekistan official statistics, 2024):

• China, 18.9%
• Russia, 17.6%
• Kazakhstan, 6.5%
• Turkiye, 4.5%
• South Korea, 3.0%
   

In 2024 Uzbekistan’s trade with the United States rose by 15% to $881.7 million, establishing the United States as Uzbekistan’s eleventh largest trading partner. Major capital purchases, such as Uzbekistan Airways’ acquisition of U.S.-made aircraft for its fleet, can cause significant variances in bilateral trade from year to year.

Uzbekistan’s constitution provides for a presidential system with separation of powers and a representative government. In practice, power is highly concentrated in the office of the president and the executive branch.  Since taking office in 2016, President Shavkat Mirziyoyev started implementing reforms needed to transition to a more transparent, competitive, market-based economy. The country’s development strategy Uzbekistan-2030 was adopted in September 2023.

Uzbekistan has signed bilateral agreements with 55 countries on the avoidance of double taxation. The U.S. Internal Revenue Service considers Uzbekistan to be one of the former Soviet republics now covered by a taxation treaty with the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), as the successor to the dual taxation treaty signed between the United States and the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) (signed in 1973 and entered into force in 1976). However, the Government of Uzbekistan argues that this agreement cannot be considered in effect and has proposed signing a new double taxation treaty. In 2015, Uzbekistan and the United States signed the Intergovernmental Agreement to Improve International Tax Compliance with respect to the United States Information Reporting Provisions, commonly known as the Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act (FATCA). The FATCA agreement entered into force in July 2017. On June 9, 2023, Uzbekistan joined the OECD/G-20 Inclusive Framework on Base Erosion and Profit Shifting (BEPS).  

Uzbekistan also has treaties providing most-favored-nation treatment with 47 countries. The governments of the United States and Uzbekistan signed a Bilateral Investment Treaty in 1994, but ratification documents have not been exchanged and the agreement never entered into force. In 2014, Uzbekistan joined the CIS Free Trade Zone Agreement. On December 11, 2020, Uzbekistan joined the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) as an observer. On April 9, 2021, the European Union accepted Uzbekistan as the ninth beneficiary of a General System of Preferences Plus (GSP+) trade arrangement, which removed tariffs on two thirds (6,200 titles) of the product lines covered by GSP in return for Uzbekistan implementing 27 ratified core international conventions on human and labor rights, environmental and climate protection, and good governance. On November 1, 2021, Uzbekistan became the first country to be admitted to the United Kingdom’s Enhanced Framework Generalized Scheme of Preferences, which allows zero import duty on more than 7,800 products made in Uzbekistan. The country has redoubled efforts to achieve accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO).

Uzbekistan signed an agreement on border demarcation with Kazakhstan in December 2022 and completed the border demarcation process with Kyrgyzstan in January 2023, finally resolving all post-independence border issues with neighboring countries.  With an estimated population of 38 million, Uzbekistan has aspirations to become a regional economic powerhouse. The Cotton Campaign, a global human rights coalition, ended its thirteen-year boycott of Uzbek cotton in March 2022, reporting it found no systemic or systematic government-imposed forced labor during the 2021 cotton harvest. The government’s declared economic policy prioritizes attracting private investment through improving Uzbekistan’s business climate, privatization, and liberalization of foreign trade.  As a double-landlocked country, Uzbekistan has traditionally relied heavily on transportation corridors through Russia. Although Russia continues to be Uzbekistan’s largest economic partner, due to the Russian war in Ukraine, the government of Uzbekistan and local businesses are exploring new markets and developing transport routes that bypass sanctioned jurisdictions. The Trans-Caspian International Transport Route linking China and the European Union through Central Asia, the South Caucasus, Turkiye, and Eastern Europe has increased in importance. 

In September 2022, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and China signed an agreement to conduct a feasibility study on a $4.7 billion China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway project, which has been discussed for 20 years. The study was completed in the first half of 2023 and railway construction started in late 2024. China, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan created a joint venture, in which China owns 51% and Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan own 24.5% each. Half of this amount – $2.35 billion – will be transferred by China in the form of a loan to the joint venture’s account. The remaining amount will be provided by the three countries, according to their share in the JV. The length of the railway line will be an estimated 486 kilometers, of which 311.75 kilometers will pass through the territory of Kyrgyzstan, and the volume of cargo transportation is projected to amount to 12-15 million tons per year.  

In 2025 Fitch Ratings upgraded Uzbekistan’s credit rating from BB- to BB with a stable outlook, while Moody’s and S&P kept their Ba3 and BB- respective ratings but both revised Uzbekistan’s outlook from stable to positive. After his 2023 election win, President Mirziyoyev declared the goal of increasing Uzbekistan’s GDP to $160 billion (from $80 billion) by 2030. In October 2024, the target was raised to $200 billion by 2030. In January 2024 the State Statistics Committee reassessed the GDP number for 2023 and added $10.7 billion to take into the account the shadow economy. This reassessment was done in collaboration with IMF technical assistance mission and increased GDP for 2023 to $101.6 billion.  

Political Environment

Visit the State Department’s website for background on the country’s political and economic environment.