Lebanon’s outlook is bleak absent an IMF program. In a September 2023 statement, the IMF noted: “Lebanon has not undertaken the urgently needed reforms, and this will weigh on the economy for years to come. The lack of political will to make difficult, yet critical, decisions to launch reforms leaves Lebanon with an impaired banking sector, inadequate public services, deteriorating infrastructure, worsening poverty and unemployment conditions, and a further widening of the income gap.”
In the long-term, however, there may be opportunities for international companies in the energy, water, waste, safety and security, fast food franchising, healthcare, and information and communications technology (ICT) sectors. Large infrastructure projects, including renewable energy projects, may be possible once again if Lebanon accedes to an IMF program, restructures its debt, and returns to international capital markets. Additionally, Lebanon and Israel finalized a historic agreement to demarcate their maritime boundary on October 27, 2022, with the United States playing a lead negotiator role. The deal clears the way for Lebanon to explore for underwater hydrocarbon resources, including by providing licensing rights to international firms.