Lebanon’s economic outlook remains challenging in the absence of an IMF program. The unresolved banking sector collapse continues to hamper economic activity and the provision of credit, and depositors are still unable to access the majority of their funds. In a March 2025 statement, the IMFnoted that: “Recent policy actions have helped maintain some degree of economic stability. Inflation declined and the exchange rate stabilized following the elimination of the fiscal deficit since mid-2023, supported by the central bank’s ending monetary financing and foreign exchange subsidies. Revenue collection has improved despite the conflict, helping to support essential spending, although expenditure pressures intensified in the second half of 2024. However, these steps are insufficient to address the ongoing economic, financial, and social challenges. A comprehensive strategy for economic rehabilitation is critical to restore growth, reduce unemployment, and improve social conditions.”
In the medium- and long-term, there may be opportunities for international companies in the energy, water, waste, safety and security, fast food franchising, healthcare, and information and communications technology (ICT) sectors. Major infrastructure projects, including renewable energy projects, as well as reconstruction may be possible once again if Lebanon accedes to an IMF program, restructures its debt, and returns to international capital markets. Additionally, Lebanon and Israel finalized a historic agreement to demarcate their maritime boundary on October 27, 2022, with the United States playing a lead negotiator role. The deal cleared the way for Lebanon to begin exploring for underwater hydrocarbon resources, including by providing licensing rights to international firms.