Indonesia - Country Commercial Guide
Energy

This is a best prospect industry sector for this country.  Includes a market overview and trade data.

Last published date: 2022-07-28

Overview

Unit: USD millions

Table: Aviation Total Market size 2019-2022 (est)

 

2019

2020

2021

2022 (Estimated)

Total Local Production

946

984

1,027

1,083

Total Exports

757

787

821

866

Total Imports

4,569

4,751

4,960

5,232

Imports from the U.S.

681

708

739

780

Total Market Size

4,758

4,948

5,165

5,450

Exchange Rate

14,147

14,582

14,308

N.A.

Data Sources:  Global Trade Stats, Central Bureau of Statistics Indonesia and unofficial estimates. Average exchange rate of Indonesian rupiah to U.S. dollars from the World Bank.

In recent years, Indonesia has made a shift towards using more renewable energy. Although coal is still the biggest energy source for electric power plants at 56% of the total,  the government has been putting greater emphasis on clean coal technology to reduce emissions from fossil-fuel powered plants. The power industry in Indonesia experienced a 5.5% annual growth in 2021, and according to the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources(MEMR) the electrification rate in Indonesia reached 99.45%. The East Nusa Tenggara and Maluku regions had the lowest electrification ratios, with 88% and 92.4% respectively according to MEMR data.

At the end of 2021, the total installed electric generation capacity was 74 Giga Watts. Of this, 43.04 GW (60.7%) was generated by state-owned electricity company PT Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN), 18.18 GW (26.5%) by independent power producers, 5.64 GW (7.7%) by operating permit holders, 3.58 GW (5.1%) by private power utilities and the remaining 55 MW (0.01%) by the government. The national transmission system consists of approximately 58,959 km of electrical lines and 77,514 Mega Volt Amperes of transmission transformer capacity. The distribution system includes approximately 946,101 km of transmission lines and 41,987 MVA of transformer capacity. The distribution system plans to further add approximately 456.5 km of lines by 2030.

Indonesia imported $5.2 billion of electrical power equipment in 2021, of which approximately 15% consisted of U.S.-origin products. Other major suppliers include China, Singapore, Japan, Korea, Malaysia, France and Germany.  Indonesian companies typically import U.S. products directly or through an agent/distributor in Singapore.

The smart power grid industry has increased in importance as Indonesia works to increase the electrification ratio with a particular focus on rural and remote areas in Eastern Indonesia. The initiative is in line with the government’s target to increase the renewable energy contribution to 25% of the energy mix by 2030, it is also in line with Indonesia’s smart city program covering 100 cities. Government regulations provide the regulatory framework for increasing private sector participation in transmission and distribution through microgrid licensing. U.S. firms would benefit from initiatives to replace costly diesel generation and leverage emerging microgrid deployment.

Challenges include the fact that the current Indonesian government administration has a general policy of strong national control over power generation and distribution, a lack of policy transparency, and local content requirements.

Leading Sub-Sectors

U.S. companies are strong competitors in markets for turbines and turbine parts, transmission and distribution equipment, smart grid technology, microgrid equipment, energy saving and efficiency technologies, and emission reduction technology.

Opportunities

In January 2021, PLN began the first stage in its program of replacing 5,200 units diesel fired power plants with renewable energy resources, mainly solar power plants and gas fired power plants. This program aims to ease the burden of Indonesia’s fuel import, by lowering the electricity production cost and increasing the renewable energy contribution to the energy mix. The first stage of the conversion of 200 diesel power plants to solar power plants, with a total combined capacity of 225 MW with the priority for diesel power plant, has been completed. Currently, PLN is opening the second stage of action. As for the conversion, for up to 250 MW of diesel power plants across number of locations in the country. For the third and final stage, PLN would be converting 1,300 MW of combined capacity diesel power plants. The aforementioned project would cost an estimated USD 6.83 billion.[SS1] 

The new National Electric Generation Plan for 2021-2030 (RUPTL) forecasts that electricity demand in Indonesia will grow 4.9% annually.  According to RUPTL estimates, by 2030 electricity demand from 94.1 million customers will reach 445 terawatt hours (TWh) and the electrification ratio will reach 100% in 2022.

Achieving the target, first announced by President Jokowi in 2014, of adding 35 GW in power generation capacity would require a total investment of an estimated U.S. $72.9 billion and the installation of 291 power plants, 732 transmission lines (75,000 set tower), and 1,375-unit substations. Even if the 35 GW plan is not fully achieved, the construction of power plants, transmission and distribution lines in Indonesia should bring commercial opportunities for U.S. companies. Areas of opportunity include the supply of equipment (turbines, etc…), coal emission technology, substations, transmission, transformers, smart metering and distribution equipment. In addition, electrification projects will create increased opportunities for renewables and gas, including clean and lower emissions coal technologies.

Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (MEMR) has initiated a new policy regime under which renewable energy projects have to compete on a strictly economic basis. New regulations establish a benchmark cost for power generation within each region. So long as a project proposal is below 85% of the regional cost, PLN is authorized to accept the project through direct negotiation between the project developer and the offtaker. Also, Ministerial Regulation ESDM No. 38/2016 provides a regulatory framework to incentivize private companies to develop independent microgrid utilities in remote and underserved locations. Under 38/2016, a developer can theoretically combine a group of villages and communities into a bundled packet and apply for the issuance of a license to own and operate an independent utility concession. Indonesian political dynamics mean that the actual issuance of such a license is likely to be quite challenging.

The national energy plan sets an ambitious renewable energy target of a 23% contribution to Indonesia’s energy mix by 2025, 10% up from the current 13%. This creates opportunities in sub sectors such as solar, biofuel, waste-to-energy, and electric vehicles. The largest renewable energy resource in Indonesia with a potential of about 200 GW, solar power, such as rooftop solar photovoltaic technology, has been growing in demand from homeowners, government buildings, public facilities and commercial facilities. In addition, the Indonesia government is working on building floating solar projects especially on the island of Java as floating solar projects offer less challenges in terms of land acquisition. In the meantime, the Indonesian government has launched waste-to-energy projects in 12 cities across Indonesia, including some that are moving forward with tenders expected in the future. Although majority of the projects are not moving as fast as expected but a few waste-to-energy projects have progressed forward.

For biofuel, the government of Indonesia plans to develop green refinery facilities as a way to leverage its vast palm oil resources as biofuel for industrial fuel needs. Since late 2018, biodiesel sold in Indonesia has had a 20% biofuel mix but in 2019, Indonesia became the first country in the world to implement a 30% biofuel ratio. Indonesia is also aiming to move towards electric vehicles, with a target of 20% of automobile sales being electric by 2025, and only electric vehicles driven by 2050. Presidential Regulation No. 55 of 2019 seeks to accelerate the growth of the electric vehicle industry. To support the growth of the electric vehicle industry, by 2030, PLN seeks to build 31,000 of public electric charge stations. With the abundant amounts nickel, as material for batteries and to support electric vehicle manafacturing, the Indonesia government has been encouraging foreign investors to invest in the Indonesian battery manafacturing industry. 

The U.S. Embassy in Jakarta established the U.S. Power Working Group as a platform to support and showcase U.S. firms interested in electrification and other commercial opportunities. The working group provides a forum for U.S. firms to engage with the Indonesian government to promote their products and services. Working group participants include power industry partners and associations who share practices, and also formulate strategies to leverage the expansion of Indonesia’s energy infrastructure.

Resources

  • Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources
  • Directorate General of Electricity, Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources
  • Directorate General of New & Renewable and Energy Conservation, Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources
  • State-owned electric company - PT Perusahaan Listrik Negara
  • IPP - Association of Independent Power Producer in Indonesia

 Interested parties may contact Commercial Specialist Mario Simanjuntak at Mario.Simanjuntak@trade.gov


confusing [SS1]