Overview

Canada’s total installed electricity generation capacity was approximately 149 GW in 2021 and is projected to reach 170 GW in 2035. The Canada Small Modular Reactors (SMR) Roadmap will be a decisive component in reaching this goal. The total electricity generated in Canada in 2022 was 640.3 TWH, approximately 2% higher than 2021.

Canada is among the world’s few developed countries that predominantly rely on clean hydro energy. In 2022, the electricity generation composition was almost unchanged from the previous year: hydro (61.3%), nuclear (12.9%), fossil fuels (19.2%), wind (6.1%), and solar (0.5%). Other sources, such as geothermal and tidal waves contributed with less than 0.2%. British Columbia, Manitoba, Newfoundland and Labrador, Prince Edward Island, and Yukon systems rely on hydro for 89% to 95% of power generation. Coal-based power generation has been eliminated in Ontario and Québec. Alberta and Saskatchewan are the only provinces relying primarily on fossil fuels, and together generate over 70% of all Canada emissions from power generation.

Renewable energies, like hydro, wind, solar, and biomass, along with significant developments in geothermal and marine energy, remain stable, representing approximately 67% of total electricity generation in 2022. According to the Canada Energy Regulator (CER), renewables are projected to reach 12% of total power generation by 2035. Wind is Canada’s second-largest source of renewable energy, with an installed capacity 13,588 MW in 2021, with Ontario (5,436 MW), Québec (3,882 MW), and Alberta (1,685 MW) the leading provinces. The total solar photovoltaic (PV) power installed capacity was over 2,600 MW in 2021.

The total market evaluation is defined by 20 HS codes at the 4-digit level covering equipment and materials for power generation, transportation, and distribution, such as nuclear reactors, power boilers, turbines and turbine generator sets, electrical equipment, and related auxiliary equipment, materials, and parts. Based on this definition, the total apparent market size in 2022 was over US$28 billion, with approximately US$13.8 billion in local production. Imports from the United States were US$10.8 billion, an increase of 17.6% from the previous year.

Table: Canada Energy Market Data (US$ Millions)
US$ Million	2020	2021	2022	2023 estimate
Total Local Production	10,173	11,487	13,822	17,648
Total Exports	7,701	9,418	10,844	12,711
Total Imports	17,926	21,041	25,087	26,527
Imports from the US	8,004	9,222	10,848	11,932
Total Market Size	20,397	23,110	28,064	31,464
Exchange Rates	1.3415	1.2535	1.3013	1.3400

[Total market size = (total local production + imports) – exports]

Units: $ millions

Source: Statistics Canada reports, Bank of Canada annual average

The market drivers are primarily real-time domestic operational needs, including economic growth and the growing demand for electric vehicles, in addition to the provincial policies to support this growth. Furthermore, the transition to renewable energy sources and clean generation technologies to reach Canada’s net-zero emissions target by 2050 has resulted in increased demand. Provinces also regulate energy pricing and have full authority over local electrical system regulations, policies, and enforcement. All jurisdictions aim to reduce coal-based generation and replace it with gas and renewable energy. International trade and Canadian currency trends are two additional drivers.

The demand for electricity was only slightly affected by COVID-19 in 2021. Demand bounced back in 2022, and the long-term needs and plans for the entire energy system provided solid growth for the total market of the 20 HS condes required for power generation, transmission, and distribution.

Leading Sub-Sectors

The following power generation and renewable energy sub-sectors recorded significant increases and represent multiple opportunities for U.S. exporters.

For specific HS product groups, the value of total imports in 2022 is listed in parentheses:

• Pumps for Liquids, Liquid Elevators (US$2.9 billion)
• Switchgear Protecting Electrical Circuits (all voltages) (US$2.7 billion)
• Steam, Vapor Generating or Water Boilers (excl. central heating boilers) (US$111 million)
• Electric Generating Sets, Rotary Converters and Parts (US$1.7 billion)
• Electrical Transformers, Static Converters and Inductors (US$2.6 billion)
• Systems and Components for Refurbishment of 8 nuclear reactors
• Components and ancillary balance of plant equipment for Small Nuclear Reactors
• Wind Turbines, Tower Sections, Rotor Blades, Casting and Forgings and Transformers
• Gears and Generators for Wind Turbines
• Hydro Energy Turbines and Equipment
• Smart Grid Connection and Energy Monitoring Equipment and Software Applications
• Engineering, Construction, and Logistics Services

Opportunities

The Canadian energy sector is a top market with significant opportunities for U.S. companies driven by existing assets and plans for further development. Between 60% and 70% of power generation facilities are in the process of being replaced or being upgraded during the next 10-15 years. Total investment in the power generation sector is forecasted to reach US$290 billion by 2030, with more than US$195 billion allocated to power generation stations, and the remainder dedicated to the transmission and distribution segments.

More than US$20 billion in investment is committed to refurbishing the large nuclear reactor fleet, with around half of the refurbishments already being completed.

The Canadian Small Modular Reactor (SMR) Roadmap is the strategy for nuclear power development and is supported by the federal government. Four provinces (Ontario, New Brunswick, Saskatchewan, and Alberta) signed a Memorandum of Understanding for the implementation of the program and commissioned a study which identified three streams to be pursued:

1. On-grid SMRs of up to 300 MWe capacity with proven, safe technology, for base load.
2. Off-grid Micro Modular Reactors (MMR), 5-20 MWe, to replace Diesel (remote communities, mining …)
3. On and off grid 4th Generation technologies SMRs for further deployment

One SMR 300 MWe and one test MMR 5 MWe are being built in Ontario, with both reactors expected to be operational before 2030. Two 4th Generation SMRs are being built for tests in New Brunswick. The Canadian government also approved US$55 million in federal funding for small modular reactor (SMR) development in Saskatchewan, where SaskPower selected GE-Hitachi’s BWRX-300 SMR for deployment in Saskatchewan in the mid-2030s.  Alberta announced it would start developing four SMRs in the 2030s.

The 2022 federal budget proposes C$120 million (approximately US$93.25 million) to back SMRs, and C$69.9 million (approximately US$54.32 million) for Natural Resources Canada to undertake research on waste, support the creation of a fuel supply chain, strengthen international cooperation agreements, and enhance domestic safety practices. The Canada Infrastructure Bank (CIB) will also broaden its role in supporting the SMR Roadmap. The federal budget also includes amounts for various renewable energy projects.

The 2023 Federal budget proposes an additional C$20 billion (approximately US$15 billion) for the CIB to support major clean electricity and clean growth infrastructure projects. It allocates approximately US$19 billion over 10 years to implement the Clean Electricity Standard.

Opportunities for delivering all types of equipment, installations, components, and materials for all segments, from power generation and transmission to local distribution, exist through various projects across Canada, including:

• Bruce Power Nuclear Generation Plant, Tiverton, ON – refurbishment
• Darlington Nuclear Generation Plant, Darlington, ON – refurbishment
• Canadian Nuclear Laboratories - MMR (5 MW) - operational by 2026
• Darlington New Nuclear Project - SMR (300 MW) – operational by 2026
• New Brunswick Power – Nuclear Gen IV SMRs
• Peace River Site C 1100 MW – BC Hydro – completion by 2026​
• Revelstoke Dam Hydro Unit 6, 300MW (installation pending)
• Lake Erie Connector Project - 320KV line ON - PA completion 2024
• 5 Transmission lines to Lakeshore, ON – US$ 1B – completion 2024
• ​New Brunswick Wind/Solar/Tidal 220MW/Storage 50MW-completion 2027
• Nova Scotia Offshore Wind Farm 1GW – seabed leas start 2025
• New transportation lines and distribution stations, substations
• Refurbishments and upgrades of existing power generation and distribution facilities

Resources

Major Events and Trade Shows:

• Electricity Transformation Canada, Calgary, Alberta, October 23-25, 2023
• Canadian Nuclear Association Conference -Trade Show, Ottawa, February 28 – March 1, 2024Power of Water Canada, May 8-10, 2024 -Niagara-on-the-Lake, Ontario

Canadian Government:

• Canada’s 2023 Budget
• Innovation, Science and Economic Development Canada
• Canada Energy Regulator
• Statistics Canada
• Ministry of Energy of Ontario
• Ministry of Energy and Natural Resources Québec

Industry Associations:

• Canadian Electricity Association
• Canadian Energy Efficiency Alliance
• Waterpower Canada
• Canadian Renewable Energy Association
• APPRO – Association of Power Producers of Ontario
• B.C. Sustainable Energy Association

Commercial Service Contacts

For additional information on this sector, please contact Commercial Specialist Stefan Popescu at Stefan.Popescu@trade.gov or by phone at (416) 595-5412 ext. 223.