Market Overview
The United States remains Guatemala’s principal and largest trading economic partner, accounting for 34% of its imports and 32% of exports. Bilateral trade and investment are steadily expanding, with increased U.S. investment in Guatemala and growing activity by Guatemalan companies in the U.S. market, reinforcing a mutually beneficial commercial and economic relationship.
In 2024, Guatemala reported attracting over USD 1.6B in foreign direct investment (FDI), driven by growth in financial services, insurance, and manufacturing. Key sources of FDI include the United States, Mexico, and neighboring Central American countries, with the U.S.-Central America-Dominican Republic Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA-DR) continuing to support regional integration. Strategic investment priorities are shifting toward more advanced sectors such as pharmaceuticals, medical devices, and information, communications, and telecommunications (ICT), and business process outsourcing, which aligns with global nearshoring trends. U.S. goods and services are widely recognized as superior to Chinese and other competitors, with the growth of remittance-fueled consumption a major area of growth in the economy.
Guatemala’s economy demonstrated resilience and stability, averaging 3.5% annual growth over the past decade. GDP expanded by 3.7% in 2024, with a forecast of 4% growth for 2025. This performance is largely due to population growth and especially remittance inflows, the latter of which grew by 8.6% and was equivalent to approximately 20% of GDP, as well as expanding access to credit. The country maintains low inflation, a stable macroeconomic environment, and competitive investment conditions. With a GDP of USD 112B in 2024, Guatemala is the largest economy in Central America, and its outlook remains positive, according to Fitch Ratings.
Despite these strengths, structural challenges persist. In 2023, 56% of Guatemalans lived below the poverty line, with an average daily income of USD 6.85. Only 29% of Guatemalans worked in the formal sector in 2024, and employment quality remains low, particularly for women, who constitute only 33% of the labor force. Deep-seated geographic and social inequalities, compounded by the country’s vulnerability to natural disasters, continue to drive migration. Nevertheless, gradual improvements in living conditions are projected through 2026.
President Bernardo Arévalo, who took office in January 2024, has prioritized social investment, anti-corruption reforms, public security, and public sector modernization. His administration has made notable strides in initiating long-needed infrastructure development, enacted Guatemala’s first competition law, and increased public spending aimed at poverty reduction. Under his administration, in one year, Guatemala rose from 154th to 146th in Transparency International’s Corruption Index.
While U.S. influence in Guatemala remains dominant, imports of goods produced in China have grown rapidly in Guatemala, mirroring regional trends. Over the past five years, China’s trade – mostly Chinese exports - throughout Central America increased by 70%, and China is now Guatemala’s second-largest trading partner. State-backed firms from China’s Communist Party (CCP) have begun expanding into regional infrastructure sectors including energy, ports, and telecommunications, but in Guatemala have focused mainly on telecommunications. Guatemala remains one of the few countries in the region with diplomatic relations with Taiwan, resisting CCP political pressure, most notably demonstrated by the retaliatory Chinese ban on Guatemalan coffee and macadamia nuts instituted in 2024 following a presidential visit to Taiwan.
Strong U.S.-Guatemala cooperation continues across strategic areas, particularly in infrastructure, migration, and security, including cybersecurity. In February 2025, during his first trip as Secretary of State, Marco Rubio formally announced that the U.S. would support and assist Guatemala’s infrastructure goals. The most prominent example of that commitment is a port development project undertaken by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers to modernize Puerto Quetzal using Guatemalan funds. In May 2025, Guatemala announced the findings of a 2024 joint cyber review conducted with the U.S. Department of Defense which uncovered the presence of APT-15, a CCP-linked cyber threat, in Guatemalan government systems.
Overall, Guatemala presents a favorable macroeconomic and commercial environment and significant potential for broad-base growth. Continued U.S. engagement—through trade, investment, and institutional support—will be essential in advancing shared economic and security interests.
Political Environment
Visit the State Department’s website for background on the political and economic environment in Guatemala.