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Poland's Energy Strategy by 2040

Poland’s Energy Policy by 2040 (PEP2040) is an update of the Polish energy strategy prepared in 2009. The new energy strategy lays out a plan for meeting Poland’s increasing electricity consumption, which amounts to almost 170TWh and is expected to grow further. Also, the strategy will prepare the national energy and climate plans, which will include national targets, contributions, policies and required measures.
The major PEP2040 revisions include: significant decrease of the share of coal in the national power generation mix from current 80% to 60% in 2030 and 22% in 2040; substantial increase of the share of renewable generation in solar capacity and offshore wind; decrease of an onshore wind capacity after 2030; and introduction of nuclear power in 2033. Additionally, the Ministry of Energy is planning to expand transmission and distribution grids, trans-border connections, develop high-efficient cogeneration, diversify gas and crude oil supplies and develop a national gas transmission system. 

Hard coal and lignite 

According to PEP2040, significant withdrawal of coal capacity is expected in the next several years due to the international energy efficiency and environmental obligations. Between 2018 and 2035, approximately 16.7 GW of existing coal-fired power generation is expected to be phased out of the system. At the same time, 5.9 GW new coal capacity is expected to be built. Apart from Ostroleka C power plant that currently is under construction, new coal-fired capacity can only be created in cogeneration.  After 2030, the Ministry of Energy plans to replace lignite with nuclear. Coal will remain the dominant source of power supply, with around 60% of generation coming from hard coal and lignite in 2030.
Nuclear power

The Ministry of Energy plans to launch operations of the first 1-1.5GW nuclear power reactor in 2033. The remaining five reactors are expected to come into live by 2043 every two years. Poland plans to reach the total nuclear power plant output capacity of 6-9GW.

Renewable energy sources (RES)

PEP provides for development of photovoltaics and offshore wind farms as key RES in Poland. The maximum level of annual capacity growth in the system was set at 1 GW for photovoltaic sources and 1.2 GW for offshore wind farms to reach 10 GW installed power in the Baltic wind farms in 2040.  In accordance with the current legal status, no new onshore wind power plants would be built. In the PEP annexes, a decrease of onshore wind is predicted – from 6.4GW in 2018 to 6GW in 2030 and 2.1GW in 2035.  RES in final energy consumption will reach around 21% in 2030, translating to about 27% in net electricity production.

Based to the draft PEP2040, the average emission of power sector is planned at 394 kg CO2/MWh.  According to the Minister of Energy Tchorzewski, introduction of all PEP provisions into Polish energy sector will cost $100 billion.

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