Jobs Supported by Exports for the United States and other research publications
An explanation of the methodology used for the jobs supported by exports calculations.
This file contains estimates of the labor embodied both directly and indirectly in U.S. exports of goods and services. In 2019, it is estimated that exports directly and indirectly supported approximately 10.7 million jobs, or 20.4 percent of total U.S. employment. Each one-billion dollars of exports is estimated to have supported 5,095 jobs.
This paper presents estimates of jobs supported by goods exports from the 50 states. In 2016, exports of goods and services supported an estimated 10.7 million U.S. jobs, of which goods exports supported 6.3 million jobs, a decline of 100 thousand from the 2015 level. Exports from Texas, California, and Washington supported the most jobs in 2016, together accounting for over 1.9 million jobs. The decline in US jobs supported by goods exports in 2016 was reflected in the state level values, with 28 states seeing their exports support fewer jobs than in 2015.
Analysis of newly released data from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) on the source of value added in bilateral imports shows that the share of U.S.-produced content in manufactured imports from Mexico and Canada has eroded significantly since the mid-1990’s. The share of U.S.-produced content in manufactured goods imported by the United States from Mexico was 16 percent in 2011, down from 26 percent in 1995, the first year for which the data are available. The same holds true with Canada: the share of U.S. content in imports from Canada fell from 21 percent in 1995 to 15 percent in 2011.
This pattern of declining share of U.S.-produced value in NAFTA imports is also seen in the United States’ largest import from NAFTA, motor vehicles, where the share of U.S. content in imports from Canada and Mexico each fell by more than 8 percentage points over the same period. The pattern is also evident, although to a lesser extent, in U.S. imports of basic metals, the United States’ second largest import from NAFTA.
In this report, we present estimates of the number of jobs supported by exports to specific country and regional destinations. In 2015, U.S. exports to Asia and Pacific supported 3.4 million jobs, exports to Europe supported 3.1 million jobs, and exports to North America supported 2.8 million jobs.
This report uses an input-output approach to evaluate the jobs supported by exports throughout the supply chain for the most recent year that industry data was available, 2014. First, we look at the jobs supported within an industry by exports that are produced in that industry or by the use of the output of that industry as an input into a product that is exported. Second, we look at the jobs supported by the export of a product across all industries that produce the export or that or supply inputs used in the production of the export.
In 2014, we find that as a group manufacturing industries have the highest share, 26 percent, of their employment supported by exports. We further find that although 59 percent of all export supported jobs are supported by the export of goods, 68 percent of all export-supported jobs are within service industries. Finally, we find that for every job within manufacturing supported by the export of manufactured products there is also a job supported in service industries by the export of those manufactured products.
In 2013, majority-owned U.S. affiliates of foreign firms employed 6.1 million people. In addition to these direct jobs, foreign direct investment (FDI) contributes to a number of indirect jobs. However, little is known about the total number of jobs attributable to FDI in the United States. We use the United States Applied General Equilibrium (USAGE) model to estimate the total jobs attributable to FDI. We find that in addition to 6.1 million direct jobs, there are 2.4 million indirect jobs attributable to the economic activity of foreign firms and 3.5 million indirect jobs attributable to technology spillovers from foreign firms, for a total of 12 million jobs attributable to FDI in the United States.
Achieving the National Export Initiative goal of doubling U.S. exports within five years will require market strategies that increase the competiveness of U.S. industries. Outbound U.S. international business travel is likely to have a key role. It brings U.S. businesses face-to-face with qualified potential buyers, agents, distributors, and other business partners and provides them with first-hand knowledge of overseas markets. In this paper, the economic benefits of U.S. international business travel is quantified in terms of the dollar value of U.S. merchandise exports that it generates. The paper reports: U.S. outbound international business travel have a significant, positive effect on the U.S. merchandise exports; the impact of outbound international business travel on trade is generally higher for countries that are likely more dissimilar to the United States in terms of culture, language and other factors that influence U.S. brand knowledge; each additional international business trip increases U.S. merchandise exports to the visited country by $36,693 per year, on average; and for the National Export Initiative priority countries of Brazil, China and India, U.S. merchandise exports will increase by an average of $53,338, $66,587, and $26,176, respectively, for each additional outbound international business trip.
The travel and tourism industry plays an important role in achieving the National Export Initiative goal of doubling exports by the end of 2014. In fact, the President’s Export Council and the President’s Jobs and Competitiveness Council both highlight the benefits of this sector and make recommendations to increase the number of visitors to the United States. Furthermore, the President on January 19, 2012, signed Executive Order 13597, Establishing Visa and Foreign Visitor Processing Goals and the Task Force On Travel Competitiveness. This paper assesses the contribution of overseas leisure travelers (except those from Canada and Mexico by land) that need a visa to enter the United States because this group can play an important role in growing exports in U.S. travel services. Based on the 2009 Survey of International Air Travelers, the paper reports: the expenditure share of all overseas travelers who need a visa to enter the United States is 47 percent, with most of that share coming from leisure travelers; if the number of overseas leisure travelers that require a visa could be increased by 10 percent, aggregate leisure expenditures would be increased by 4.6 percent or by $1.25 billion; and for the National Export Initiative priority countries Brazil, China, and India, a 10 percent increase in leisure visitors would increase travel expenditures by $344 million.
This paper presents a simple model of international trade that generates predictions about the effect of energy costs on export performance. The model is applied to NAICS 3-digit industries in the U.S. manufacturing sector and then on a more disaggregated basis for relatively energy-intensive 6-digit manufacturing industries. The model demonstrates that energy prices have had a significant effect on the export performance of the U.S. manufacturing sector. The increase in energy prices between 2002 and 2006 limited the expansion of exports over that time period. The total impact on U.S. non-petroleum manufacturing exports during this period was a reduction in exports of approximately $11.5 billion per year. In other words, the increase in the industries’ exports would have been approximately $11.5 billion per year higher absent the increase in energy prices.
This paper examines how the expansion of international trade can significantly increase the level of employment in the transportation sector using an econometric model that quantifies the effect of U.S. exports on the level of transportation sector employment in different parts of the United States. The expansion of U.S. exports between 2003 and 2010 added between 63,000 and 140,000 workers to the sector, with a central estimate of 101,000 workers. This positive contribution of U.S. exports to transportation sector employment offsets some of the national decline in transportation employment over this period. The 30.4 percent increase in the value of exports between 2003 and 2010 helped to limit the national decline in transportation employment to about one percent over this period.
This paper analyzes the weekly earnings of workers in the U.S. services sector. It estimates the premium in labor earnings in U.S. services industries that are export-intensive. The calculations combine worker-level data on weekly earnings, educational attainment, occupational categories, and other demographic characteristics from the Current Population Survey with industry-level data on U.S. exports of services from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. It estimates that workers in export-intensive services industries earn 15 to 20 percent more than comparable workers in other industries.
This paper investigates the link between exporting and the economic stability of the U.S. manufacturing sector. It compares the volatility of the domestic shipments of U.S. companies and industries to the volatility of their total, worldwide shipments. In general, it finds that industries with higher export shares experienced larger reductions in the volatility of their total shipments.
This paper uses an econometric model to estimate the impact of exporting on the earnings of U.S. manufacturing workers. It examines a sample of the recent earnings of nearly 60,000 U.S. manufacturing workers. It estimates the impact on earnings of several worker characteristics, including the export intensity of the worker’s industry and the worker’s education, age, location, and occupation. It estimates that exports contribute an additional 18 percent to workers’ earnings on average in the U.S. manufacturing sector.
This paper presents and interprets multiple charts that show the relative share of U.S. exports in the eligible energy-intensive, trade-exposed (EITE) sectors according to various regions and destination countries. It provides successive levels of disaggregation with regard to more specific sectors, including Iron & Steel and Chemicals, based on both their share of U.S. exports and the relative importance of large, developing countries such as Brazil, India, China, and South Africa (“BICSA”).
U.S. dependence on imports of crude oil has steadily increased for three decades. One way to reduce this dependence is to increase domestic production of renewable fuels such as ethanol. This report examines the effect on the U.S. economy in 2020 if advances in technology allow cellulosic ethanol to become commercially viable.
To reduce overall emissions, the U.S. coal industry is developing specific technology that can be incorporated into coal-fired power plants. That technology will allow coal to be burned with lower emissions of carbon dioxide. The U.S. technological preeminence in this field presents an opportunity to export the equipment and to license the technology to countries such as China and India, where coal-fired electricity production is rising quickly. This paper estimates the potential for U.S. exports of existing clean coal technology to a growing worldwide market.
This paper focuses on supporting U.S. competitiveness by facilitating international travel. In particular, the paper examines the relationship between various U.S. visa policies and incoming foreign direct investment in the United States.
This paper focuses on employment issues in food manufacturing (including confectionery), cane refining, and related industries. In particular, the paper examines whether U.S. jobs have been lost as a result of the movement of manufacturing facilities offshore due, in material part, to the differential between U.S. and world sugar prices.