Jobs Supported by Exports 2012: An Update, February 2013
The value of U.S. exports of goods and services was $2.2 trillion in 2012. Jobs supported by exports increased to 9.8 million in 2012, up 1.3 million since 2009. In 2012, every billion dollars of U.S. exports supported 4,926 jobs. Goods exports supported 7.3 million jobs in 2012, and one billion dollars of goods exports supported 5,359 jobs. Similarly, services exports supported 2.5 million jobs in 2012, and one billion dollars of services exports supported 3,997 jobs.
Achieving the National Export Initiative goal of doubling U.S. exports within five years will require market strategies that increase the competiveness of U.S. industries. Outbound U.S. international business travel is likely to have a key role. It brings U.S. businesses face-to-face with qualified potential buyers, agents, distributors, and other business partners and provides them with first-hand knowledge of overseas markets. In this paper, the economic benefits of U.S. international business travel is quantified in terms of the dollar value of U.S. merchandise exports that it generates. The paper reports: U.S. outbound international business travel have a significant, positive effect on the U.S. merchandise exports; the impact of outbound international business travel on trade is generally higher for countries that are likely more dissimilar to the United States in terms of culture, language and other factors that influence U.S. brand knowledge; each additional international business trip increases U.S. merchandise exports to the visited country by $36,693 per year, on average; and for the National Export Initiative priority countries of Brazil, China and India, U.S. merchandise exports will increase by an average of $53,338, $66,587, and $26,176, respectively, for each additional outbound international business trip.
The travel and tourism industry plays an important role in achieving the National Export Initiative goal of doubling exports by the end of 2014. In fact, the President’s Export Council and the President’s Jobs and Competitiveness Council both highlight the benefits of this sector and make recommendations to increase the number of visitors to the United States. Furthermore, the President on January 19, 2012, signed Executive Order 13597, Establishing Visa and Foreign Visitor Processing Goals and the Task Force On Travel Competitiveness. This paper assesses the contribution of overseas leisure travelers (except those from Canada and Mexico by land) that need a visa to enter the United States because this group can play an important role in growing exports in U.S. travel services. Based on the 2009 Survey of International Air Travelers, the paper reports: the expenditure share of all overseas travelers who need a visa to enter the United States is 47 percent, with most of that share coming from leisure travelers; if the number of overseas leisure travelers that require a visa could be increased by 10 percent, aggregate leisure expenditures would be increased by 4.6 percent or by $1.25 billion; and for the National Export Initiative priority countries Brazil, China, and India, a 10 percent increase in leisure visitors would increase travel expenditures by $344 million.
Jobs supported by exports increased to 9.7 million in 2011, up 0.6 million from 2010 and 1.2 million from 2009. Export-supported jobs accounted for 6.9 percent of total U.S. civilian employment in 2011. In 2011, $1 billion of exports supported 5,080 jobs. In 2010, the latest year for which disaggregated sectoral information is available, $1 billion of goods exports supported about 6,100 jobs, and $1 billion of services exports supported about 4,300 jobs, compared to 5,500 jobs supported by $1 billion of total exports. In 2010, jobs in the manufacturing sector accounted for 2.9 million, or almost a third, of the 9.1 million jobs supported by exports. In 2010, the private services sector accounted for 5.4 million export-supported jobs.
Energy Costs and Export Performance, April 2012
This paper presents a simple model of international trade that generates predictions about the effect of energy costs on export performance. The model is applied to NAICS 3-digit industries in the U.S. manufacturing sector and then on a more disaggregated basis for relatively energy-intensive 6-digit manufacturing industries. The model demonstrates that energy prices have had a significant effect on the export performance of the U.S. manufacturing sector. The increase in energy prices between 2002 and 2006 limited the expansion of exports over that time period. The total impact on U.S. non-petroleum manufacturing exports during this period was a reduction in exports of approximately $11.5 billion per year. In other words, the increase in the industries’ exports would have been approximately $11.5 billion per year higher absent the increase in energy prices.
This paper examines how the expansion of international trade can significantly increase the level of employment in the transportation sector using an econometric model that quantifies the effect of U.S. exports on the level of transportation sector employment in different parts of the United States. The expansion of U.S. exports between 2003 and 2010 added between 63,000 and 140,000 workers to the sector, with a central estimate of 101,000 workers. This positive contribution of U.S. exports to transportation sector employment offsets some of the national decline in transportation employment over this period. The 30.4 percent increase in the value of exports between 2003 and 2010 helped to limit the national decline in transportation employment to about one percent over this period.
Jobs Supported by Exports: An Update, March 2012
The 2011 MAS Economics Brief “Projected Jobs Supported by Exports, 2009 and 2010” provided revised estimates for 2009 and 2010 for the value of exports that support one job. This update, based on newly released data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, provides jobs supported by U.S. exports over the period 2002 to 2011. Jobs supported by exports increased to 9.7 million in 2011, up 1.2 million from the 2009 level of 8.5 million. The 9.7 million export-supported jobs in 2011 is almost at the pre-recession peak of 9.8 million in 2008. In 2011, every billion dollars of U.S. exports supported 5,080 jobs. This is down from 5,998 jobs per billion dollars of U.S. exports in 2009. Increases in export prices and labor productivity, at 11 percent and 6 percent respectively, drove the 15 percent decline in jobs per billion dollars of U.S. exports since 2009.
The International Trade Administration’s 2010 report “Exports Support American Jobs” provided preliminary estimates for jobs supported by exports for 2009 and for the value of exports that support one job for 2009 and 2010. This Economic Brief attempts to improve projections, provide transparency in making the projections, and provides revised estimates for 2009 and 2010. The revised estimates of jobs supported by exports are 8.7 million in 2009 and 9.2 million in 2010. The value of exports that supports one job was $164,000 in 2009 and $181,000 for 2010. That is, the value fell slightly from 2008 to 2009 because of the recession and softness in export prices. In 2010, the value increased to $181,000 as export prices and productivity strengthened.
This paper analyzes the weekly earnings of workers in the U.S. services sector. It estimates the premium in labor earnings in U.S. services industries that are export-intensive. The calculations combine worker-level data on weekly earnings, educational attainment, occupational categories, and other demographic characteristics from the Current Population Survey with industry-level data on U.S. exports of services from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. It estimates that workers in export-intensive services industries earn 15 to 20 percent more than comparable workers in other industries.
This paper investigates the link between exporting and the economic stability of the U.S. manufacturing sector. It compares the volatility of the domestic shipments of U.S. companies and industries to the volatility of their total, worldwide shipments. In general, it finds that industries with higher export shares experienced larger reductions in the volatility of their total shipments.
This paper uses an econometric model to estimate the impact of exporting on the earnings of U.S. manufacturing workers. It examines a sample of the recent earnings of nearly 60,000 U.S. manufacturing workers. It estimates the impact on earnings of several worker characteristics, including the export intensity of the worker’s industry and the worker’s education, age, location, and occupation. It estimates that exports contribute an additional 18 percent to workers’ earnings on average in the U.S. manufacturing sector.
This paper presents and interprets multiple charts that show the relative share of U.S. exports in the eligible energy-intensive, trade-exposed (EITE) sectors according to various regions and destination countries. It provides successive levels of disaggregation with regard to more specific sectors, including Iron & Steel and Chemicals, based on both their share of U.S. exports and the relative importance of large, developing countries such as Brazil, India, China, and South Africa (“BICSA”).
U.S. dependence on imports of crude oil has steadily increased for three decades. One way to reduce this dependence is to increase domestic production of renewable fuels such as ethanol. This report examines the effect on the U.S. economy in 2020 if advances in technology allow cellulosic ethanol to become commercially viable.
Potential Exports of U.S. Clean Coal Technology through 2030, November 2007
To reduce overall emissions, the U.S. coal industry is developing specific technology that can be incorporated into coal-fired power plants. That technology will allow coal to be burned with lower emissions of carbon dioxide. The U.S. technological preeminence in this field presents an opportunity to export the equipment and to license the technology to countries such as China and India, where coal-fired electricity production is rising quickly. This paper estimates the potential for U.S. exports of existing clean coal technology to a growing worldwide market.
Visas and Foreign Direct Investment, November 2007
This paper focuses on supporting U.S. competitiveness by facilitating international travel. In particular, the paper examines the relationship between various U.S. visa policies and incoming foreign direct investment in the United States.
This paper focuses on employment issues in food manufacturing (including confectionery), cane refining, and related industries. In particular, the paper examines whether U.S. jobs have been lost as a result of the movement of manufacturing facilities offshore due, in material part, to the differential between U.S. and world sugar prices.
For more information please contact: Julian Richards